Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.361995 0.415184 0.472937 0.540232 0.616420 0.699927 0.798319
2025-07-27 0.294762 0.367242 0.452068 0.558395 0.687817 0.839932 1.031960
2025-08-03 0.245196 0.329770 0.435807 0.577860 0.762446 0.993369 1.303263
2025-08-10 0.192770 0.279202 0.395005 0.560318 0.788843 1.091991 1.522666
2025-08-17 0.149876 0.233247 0.352332 0.532982 0.797810 1.169032 1.725265
2025-08-24 0.122027 0.203316 0.326661 0.524746 0.831431 1.283768 1.995466
2025-08-31 0.099861 0.177694 0.302838 0.515018 0.860917 1.396041 2.277229
2025-09-07 0.086277 0.163267 0.293919 0.526834 0.924959 1.568308 2.672414
2025-09-14 0.070130 0.141192 0.268477 0.507008 0.934282 1.654923 2.942652
2025-09-21 0.058932 0.125837 0.251956 0.499650 0.963161 1.776582 3.285327
2025-09-28 0.049423 0.111764 0.235246 0.488985 0.984123 1.886563 3.620711
2025-10-05 0.044245 0.105445 0.232258 0.503738 1.053859 2.091079 4.148123
2025-10-12 0.038057 0.095938 0.221776 0.503115 1.096331 2.255266 4.630688
2025-10-19 0.033706 0.089659 0.216997 0.513635 1.162959 2.474460 5.246530
2025-10-26 0.030128 0.084438 0.213629 0.526725 1.237079 2.718107 5.941221
2025-11-02 0.025053 0.074259 0.196972 0.507129 1.237970 2.813411 6.348458
2025-11-09 0.020442 0.064137 0.178432 0.479762 1.217166 2.860366 6.660804
2025-11-16 0.017471 0.057809 0.168111 0.470498 1.236714 2.996826 7.181804
2025-11-23 0.014931 0.052074 0.158178 0.460407 1.252673 3.127150 7.704907
2025-11-30 0.013489 0.049346 0.155905 0.470055 1.318981 3.381061 8.538110
2025-12-07 0.011321 0.043668 0.144082 0.451532 1.310451 3.457502 8.967549
2025-12-14 0.009817 0.039807 0.136791 0.444414 1.330789 3.606071 9.586001
2025-12-21 0.008458 0.036060 0.129036 0.434482 1.341892 3.732873 10.165674